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BPSC Mains GS-2 Masterclass · Science & Technology

Disaster Forecasting & ManagementFloods, Droughts, Weather & Earthquakes

North Bihar floods almost every year while the south goes dry, and the whole state sits on an earthquake belt. This page shows how satellites, radars, supercomputers, sensors and ICT forecast and manage disasters, and why weather forecasts and seismic studies matter.

Floods76%North Bihar at risk

of its people live under flood threat.

Area73.06%Flood-affected area

68,800 of 94,160 sq km.

Share22.1%India's flood-hit people

are in Bihar.

Both2019Flood and drought

at the same time in Bihar.

Lightning253Lightning deaths

in 2019-20.

Earthquake1934Bihar–Nepal earthquake

Munger and Muzaffarpur destroyed.

Part 1 · Bihar experiences natural disasters on a regular basis

Floods, Droughts and More: Bihar's Disaster Profile

India's most flood-prone state, with drought in the south, heat, cold, lightning and earthquakes adding to the toll.

Illustration of a flooded north Bihar village with rescue boats, people on raised embankments and a river in spate

Many hazards

Bihar faces multiple natural disasters for example, floods, droughts, earthquakes, cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, landslides etc.

Historically, apart from almost annual occurrence of flood in northern Bihar and drought in southern Bihar, some of the prominent examples of disasters in Bihar include earthquake of 1934, flood of 2008 (when Kosi changed its course for the first time since the 1950s), drought of 1966-67 etc.

Floods

The south-west monsoon brings the maximum rainfall in the state, lasting from June to September, and often causes flood-like situation, especially in the northern districts.
Bihar is India's most flood-prone state, with 76% population in the North Bihar living under the recurring threat of flood devastation.
Bihar makes up 16.5% of India's flood affected area and 22.1% of India's flood affected population.
About 73.06% of Bihar's geographical area, i.e. 68,800 square kilometres (26,600 sq mi) out of 94,160 square kilometres (36,360 sq mi), is flood affected.
On an annual basis, they destroy thousands of human lives apart from livestock and assets worth millions.
North Bihar districts are vulnerable to at least five major flood-causing rivers during monsoon – Mahananda River, Koshi River, Bagmati River, Burhi Gandak River and Gandak – which originate in Nepal.
Some south Bihar districts have also become vulnerable to floods from Son, Punpun and Phalgu rivers.
According to data from Economic survey 2019-20, more than 149 lakh population of Bihar was affected by flooding and it resulted in the loss of 300 lives, and crop production loss of 446.6 crore Rs.

Drought

Irregularity and shortage of rainfall as well as uneven spatial distribution of rainfall are the main cause behind the drought condition in Bihar.
It affects agriculture the most, on which more than 80% of Bihar population is dependent.

In 2019, Bihar experienced both drought and flood simultaneously

A drought-like situation prevails in 24 districts, while 13 districts are affected by floods.
- Four of these districts Muzaffarpur, Darbhanga, Madhubani and Sitamarhi have been declared both flood- and drought-hit.
North Bihar is engulfed in a flood, while south Bihar is experiencing severe drought with deficient rainfall.

Other disasters

Apart from the floods and drought, Cold wave, heat wave (107 deaths in 2019-20), Lightning (253 deaths in 2019-20), Fire etc are other disasters which hinder the development process of the state. These disasters not only delay the ongoing development works but are also a threat to human and physical capital of the state.

Part 2 · The role of science and technology in disaster forecasting

Seeing Disasters Coming

The Sendai Framework puts science at the heart of disaster risk reduction; radars, satellites, drones, supercomputers and river-sensing boats give early warning.

The Sendai Framework

The Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction (2015-2030), also recognises the application of science and technology can help us at every stage of the disaster management. It recommends that to achieve the disaster risk reduction targets, it is important to enhance the scientific and technical work on disaster risk reduction and its mobilization through the coordination of existing networks and scientific research institutions at all levels and in all regions with the support of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Scientific and Technical Advisory Group.

Forecasting technologies

Early warning systems

Depending on the types of disasters, it uses various technologies like space remote sensing technologies, Automatic Weather Stations, Doppler radars, High Wind Speed Recorders, Ocean buoys, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles etc. They provide critical information for tracking and forecasting the intensity of disasters.

Space technologies

Earth observation satellites, communication satellites, meteorological satellites and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) can help in collecting data for prevention and preparedness of the disasters.

Zoning and mapping

Space technology along with drone technology are also used for zoning and mapping of the affected areas by the disasters, e.g. India EQ Maps is a mobile app focused on the earthquake disaster. Use of space and drone technologies for mapping of affected areas for planning of response measures for different areas.

Supercomputing

Super computing is used to simulate weather as well as to tune forecasts to go beyond just giving rainfall estimates and factor in the potential damage of floods and cyclones.

Acoustic boats

Acoustic remote-controlled boats use ultrasound pulses to collect information about river levels and help predict when flooding may occur.

Already in use

The above technologies are already being used for Flood and drought forecasting so that information can be used for the prevention and preparedness of the affected areas on time.

Example: A Doppler radar measures not just where rain is but how fast it is moving towards or away from the radar, so forecasters can see a storm's rotation and speed hours before it arrives and warn the districts in its path.

Part 3 · The role of science and technology in disaster management

Managing Disasters with Science and Technology

Safer construction, ICT for warnings and relief, crop sensors, biotechnology, pandemic tools and building back better, with Bihar's efforts and models from other states.

Safer planning and construction

Latest technologies are also employed in planning and designing the constructions and infrastructure in a way to minimise the risks and impact of the disasters, e.g.:
- Water control/conservation technologies can reduce the occurrence of flood by capturing the excess water.
- Nanotechnology can be used for improving the resilience through Building Materials, sensors etc.
- The sediment removal technologies can prevent the flooding due to accumulation of sediments in the water reservoirs.
The use of technology is seen in building back better to prepare for the future occurrence of the disaster, e.g. incorporating ductility within the structure makes the building ductile and Earthquake-resistant as the building is able to bend and flex when exposed to the horizontal or vertical shear forces of an earthquake.

Information and communication

Internet and communication technologies are used in warnings, information, data dissemination which helps in effective coordination and seamless communication among different stakeholders to ensure quick, clear, effective dissemination of data and information for decision making.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides information about the weather forecasting using the data from the modern communication technologies.
Spread of information about the relief programs being taken by the government and civil societies using ICT technologies. In case the communication infrastructure is damaged, satellite internet can be used for the communication in remote areas.
ICT and social media platforms are also used for the training and capacity building to deal with these disasters.

Farms, food and biotechnology

The wireless sensors are used to measure crop canopy temperature for indications of water stress in the drought affected regions.
Bio-technology can also help in mitigating the impact of the disasters, e.g. GM crops can improve the drought and water tolerance of the crops, Vaccine development for the recent covid-19 pandemic.
- Food fortification can be used to improve the nutritional value of the food supplies being delivered to disaster affected population.

The Covid-19 pandemic

In case of recent Covid-19 pandemic technologies were used in contact-tracing, testing, and home to home surveillance to minimize and curb the spread of the infection, e.g. Aarogya Setu app was launched to stop the spread of infections.
- Internet technologies were used for direct benefit transfer of the relief amounts under Mukhyamantri Vishesh Sahayata scheme as well as spread of information and checking the rumours related to the pandemic.

The whole cycle

Thus, Science and technology played pivotal role in complete disaster management cycle. Sendai framework has already recognised that Scientific research can help identifying the disaster risk patterns, causes and effects. Even at policy level it helps in informed decision making. Further, under the guidelines of NDMA for different disasters, there are provisions for the application of science and technology.

Bihar government has already taken various initiatives to move towards greater disaster resilience. Bihar State Disaster Management Authority (BSDMA), together with Disaster Management Department has various initiatives towards awareness generation, structural and non-structural strengthening and capacity building of various stakeholders in which science and technology has been used invariably.

Going forward: learning from best practices

Going forward, there is need to learn from the best practices from other regions.

TNSMART, Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu has built a web GIS based system called TNSMART. This application, which is developed in collaboration with ISRO, has modules related to thresholds, hazard forecast, disaster impact forecast, advisory, response planning, etc.

Karnataka

Karnataka has a GPS enabled system for near real-time monitoring and communication of disasters in the state.

IoT whitepaper

In India, the Government has encouraged the use of digital technologies in ensuring help during disasters. For example, the Digital India Action Group (DIAG) released a whitepaper on using IoT for effective disaster management.

Part 4 · The relevance of weather forecast

Weather Forecasting and Why It Matters

From barometers to computer models, forecasts protect lives and guide farmers, power companies, airlines, firefighters and governments.

Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century.

Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change.

How is weather forecasting done?

Traditionally, it was done on the basis of changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition or cloud cover.

Weather forecasting relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases.

Relevance of weather forecast

For weather warning: used to protect life and property.
Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets.
- Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat, and corn crops.
Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days.
- Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand.
To determine what to wear on a given day.
Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.
Accurate weather forecasting is essential in the aviation industry.
- Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.
- Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards.
- On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.
Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires.
Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too, e.g. Desert Locust breed in damp soil.
Government can make appropriate planning depending on weather forecast.

Part 5 · The relevance of seismic studies

Seismic Studies: Reading the Earth's Tremors

Seismology studies earthquakes and the waves they send through the Earth, helping map its interior, zone hazards and design buildings that survive.

Seismic studies

Study of earthquakes and the propagation of elastic waves through the Earth. The field also includes studies of earthquake environmental effects such as tsunamis as well as diverse seismic sources such as volcanic, tectonic, oceanic, atmospheric, and artificial processes such as explosions.

Some notable earthquakes that spurred major advancements in seismic studies are the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake.

Seismic waves

Seismic waves are elastic waves that propagate in solid or fluid materials. They can be divided into body waves that travel through the interior of the materials; surface waves that travel along surfaces or interfaces between materials; and normal modes, a form of standing wave.

Relevance of seismic studies

It helps in understanding the behaviour of structures of various types subjected to earthquake loads,
how we can protect the inhabitants of that structure in an event of an earthquake,
Seismic study also helps us to understand the various types of seismic waves that originate,
Mapping the earth's interior:
- Since S-waves do not pass through liquids, the liquid core causes a “shadow” on the side of the planet opposite the earthquake where no direct S-waves are observed. In addition, P-waves travel much slower through the outer core than the mantle.
- Processing readings from many seismometers using seismic tomography, seismologists have mapped the mantle of the earth to a resolution of several hundred kilometers.
Example: It is like finding a hidden pond by shouting across a field: if the echo never reaches one side, something is blocking it. S-waves never reach the far side of the Earth, which is how we know the outer core is liquid.
Earthquake prediction:
- Various attempts have been made by seismologists and others to create effective systems for precise earthquake predictions.
- Most seismologists do not believe that a system to provide timely warnings for individual earthquakes has yet been developed, and many believe that such a system would be unlikely to give useful warning of impending seismic events.
- However, more general forecasts routinely predict seismic hazard. Such forecasts estimate the probability of an earthquake of a particular size affecting a particular location within a particular time-span, and they are routinely used in earthquake engineering (Earthquake engineering is an interdisciplinary branch of engineering that designs and analyzes structures, such as buildings and bridges, with earthquakes in mind).
Helping us map the zones of frequent earthquakes and stable zones,
- The study of seismic activity of a particular zone helps in establishing minimum standards of safety for that zone, making life more easy to continue post earthquake.
Designing big Engineering structures
Hazard analysis onshore and offshore
Exploring Hydrocarbons and Exploring Minerals.

For developing earthquake resistant buildings

All buildings in Japan are required to have an earthquake-resistant structure, which means that new construction can only be approved through rigorous compliance with earthquake-proof standards.
In Japan, wooden buildings have been used for many years, “Traditional wooden structures, such as temples, are very resistant to earthquakes. They bend like willow to avoid building up stress.” We have actually seen wooden buildings swaying a lot in large earthquakes.

Bihar and earthquakes

The 1934 Bihar earthquake or 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake was one of the worst earthquakes in India's history. Munger and Muzaffarpur were completely destroyed.

“Science and technology played pivotal role in complete disaster management cycle.”

— BPSC Mains answer · Disaster management

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